Claim-Evidence Contract

This reference defines the lightweight contract used when a writing or audit flow needs to judge whether manuscript claims are supported by visible evidence. It is an advisory contract, not permission to invent missing evidence.

Claim Candidate Record

Use this shape when emitting a claim-evidence map:

{
  "claim": "exact manuscript claim or proposed claim",
  "section_key": "abstract|introduction|results|discussion|conclusion|...",
  "evidence_anchor": [
    {
      "type": "citation|figure_or_table|metric|section|analysis_artifact|missing",
      "text": "visible anchor"
    }
  ],
  "claim_strength": "unsupported|observed|supported|strong",
  "missing_evidence": ["specific missing support or verification action"],
  "allowed_wording": "bounded wording that does not outrun the evidence",
  "forbidden_wording": ["wording family that requires stronger evidence"]
}

Strength Ladder

Strength	Meaning	Safe action
unsupported	No visible citation, metric, figure/table, section, or artifact anchor supports the claim.	Soften, mark missing evidence, or remove.
observed	A local observation or metric is visible, but cross-checking or comparison support is incomplete.	Keep bounded to the observed setting.
supported	At least one visible anchor exists, but the source still needs claim-level verification.	Keep the claim only within the anchor's scope.
strong	Metric plus figure/table/artifact support is visible and the boundary is explicit.	Keep, while preserving dataset/method/setting limits.

Evidence Anchor Rules

• A citation key proves only that a reference is cited. It does not prove the cited paper supports the manuscript sentence until claim support is checked.
• A figure supports patterns and comparisons; a table supports exact values. Do not use a figure-only anchor for an exact numeric claim unless the value is readable or separately tabulated.
• A metric without a dataset, baseline, or unit of analysis should remain observed, not strong.
• A section or appendix reference is useful only when the target section actually contains the promised method, proof, data, or limitation.

Output Discipline

• Preserve the author's original claim text when reporting problems.
• Never invent baselines, p-values, ablations, sample sizes, citations, figures, or datasets.
• When evidence is missing, write the missing evidence explicitly instead of filling the gap.
• Prefer bounded wording such as "in the reported setting" or "the presented results suggest" over universal claims.

See also

• over-claim-guard.md — once a claim's strength is known, that guide gives the verb/qualifier tables for wording it conservatively. This contract sets the ceiling; the guard picks the wording under it.